However, this will also depend on what the weather does from now until then. Yosemite Valley waterfall volume should be peaking slightly later this year as well (~early June). Glacier Point Road may be open for Memorial Day weekend but the Tioga Pass Road won't be open until well into June. ![]() Should these predictions prove accurate, the roads will open later than an "average" year. I estimate that the Glacier Point Road will open sometime between May 20 and 28 and the Tioga Pass Road will open sometime between June 16 and 24. Therefore, I'll use a mix of all of the stations and previous years to make my predictions. Both show strong correlation and each's prediction correlates well with previous years with similar snowpack. For the Tioga Pass Road, TNY (77% of variability) predicts an opening date of June 16 and STR (70% of variability) predicts an opening date of June 24. Based on recent years, DAN appears to be a better predictor. For the Glacier Point Road, DAN (44% of variability) predicts an opening date of May 22, and STR (68% of variability) predicts an opening date of June 21. I typically use maximum SWE values to predict opening dates, but because it is possible for maximum SWE to occur after today's date I am forced to rely on April 1 values which are less reliable. Unfortunately, no data exists from Virginia Lakes ( VLks ) for 2019. Tuolumne Meadows ( TUM ) snow accumulation is more similar to the rest of range at 161% of mean and 181% of median (1980-present). Dana Meadows ( DAN ) saw somewhat less snow versus the rest of the Sierras with the snowpack at 133% of mean and 143% of median (1981-present). Either way, these numbers are pretty impressive.The snow accumulation at Tenaya Lake ( TNY ) is also similar to the overall values at 172% of mean and 190% of median (1980-present). According to the mean, this year's April 1 snowpack is at 200%. ![]() The median represents a more realistic curve. Again, I like looking at median (1980-present) values to compare what "average" looks like because the actual average or "mean" gets skewed by extreme values at the end of the season. ![]() As you can see, it was nearly a record year for this site. To the right is a graph of what 2019's snow accumulation looks like at Ostrander Lake ( STR ), the best predictor of opening dates. When I use the data from the nearest weather stations I get a narrower range of values. Based on these past years, the Glacier Point Road could open anytime between mid-and late-May while the Tioga Pass Road probably won't open until mid- to late-June.
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